Monday, March 21, 2005

Global Warming, Redux

No Stopping Global Warming, Studies Predict
Virtually no one disagrees human activity is fueling global warming..
The key here is the word "fueling". If we are using fueling to mean "the main cause" or "driving" then quite a few people disagree. If "fueling means "also contributes to", then I suspect they are right that virtually no one disagrees. But, "also contributes to" doesn't spark the same fear, does it?
Even if people stopped pumping out carbon dioxide and other pollutants tomorrow, global warming would still get worse, two teams of researchers reported on Thursday...
Wait, I thought global warming was a man made phenomenon. Now we hear that even if we completely stopped polluting, global warming would still continue. Think about that. How many times have you heard that we (humans, Americans, SUV drivers, etc) are responsible for global warming. Now it turns out that even if humans didn't exist, global warming would continue apace.

Wait a minute: if we are "fueling" global warming, how is it going to get worse even if we completely stop polluting. I bet the response has something to do with "given what damage we have already done...". Problem: this is all speculation based on models of weather over the next 100 years. Two points: first, the weather model my weatherman uses said about 12 hours ago that it would be raining right now. It is sunny and clear. Second, those same models predicting the next 100 years are fantastically bad at back predicting. That is to say, if you input the same assumptions, pretend it is 1904 and run the model, it predicts radically higher temperatures and sea levels than what we have today. Global warming computer models are the perfect illustration of the old GIGO motto.

It has been a couple weeks since I have said it, so I'll restate: global warming is more about politics than science.


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3:42 AM  

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